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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still